Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Your First Two Picks Should be Receivers this Year

Your first two picks should be receivers this year.

You're sitting there with the first pick in the draft. Adrian Peterson may be your default number 1. Or you may be deciding between him and Arian Foster. Or the Muscle Hamster. Regardless, Calvin Johnson isn't even on your radar. Why should he be? Running backs have historically been the first couple picks of every draft since the beginning of time. Things don't change, ever.

I think this year, they are.

There is a BEYOND GODLIKE! tier of receivers this year. The top 4, in order are: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, and A.J. Green. Factor in where these receivers play, who they play against, positional injuries, trends with goal line backs, etc. These receivers will pace the top running backs all year.

1) Calvin Johnson
2) Julio Jones
3) Brandon Marshall
4) A.J. Green


5) Percy Harvin
6) Demaryius Thomas
7) Dez Bryant (I'd like to put him in the BEYOND GODLIKE! category but he has to prove he can play an entire year without losing focus)
8) Larry Fitzgerald




The drop off from the top eight receivers is much steeper than the top eight running backs. In fact, the running back class is quite deep this year. There are tremendous value picks in players like Darren McFadden and  Ryan Mathews who are one or two years removed from being legitimate first round picks. There are young backs who are being given the reigns like Lamar Miller and David Wilson. Teams like the Patriots and Eagles are running so many plays that Bryce Brown and Shane Vareen may be legitimate #2 or flex options. All these players I just named are being drafted in the third round or later.

Really the question is, who do you want to anchor your team? If you are injury averse, I would argue that you have even more reasons to be compelled to choose two receivers. Those four are true number one options on their respective teams. None have a truly effective running back to fall back on. When shit hits the fan, they look for their number one. After the top eight, you will not have consistent production across the entire year for receivers.

It is not out of the realm of possibilities to lock up two of those top four. Especially if you are sitting in the middle or end of your draft. Not only will you have game breaking production, but you will be keeping this game breaking production out of your opponents hands.

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