In looking at these numbers, I ask myself, which backs have already peaked? Which backs have coaches that are limiting their touches? I would knock Lynch, Rice, and Gore all down based on those questions.
You also want to look at which backs are in a situation where their upside may be capped. Are they in a balanced offense? Are they the only options on their team? Will the box be stacked eight strong every time they line up? Based on those assumptions, I would knock Spiller and Richardson slightly down.
I'm going to ignore injury questions, because by virtue of just being a running back you are more likely to get injured.
Monday, June 17, 2013
The Year of the Receiver
There has not been more than four receivers to break the 200+ point barrier in one year since 2009 (based on non ppr standard scoring), per NFL.com. Here are last year's receivers and running backs who scored above that 200 mark: