Monday, June 17, 2013

The Year of the Receiver

There has not been more than four receivers to break the 200+ point barrier in one year since 2009 (based on non ppr standard scoring), per Here are last year's receivers and running backs who scored above that 200 mark:

Running Backs:

  1. Adrian Peterson 307.40
  2. Doug Martin 262.60
  3. Arian Foster 262.10
  4. Marshawn Lynch 246.60
  5. Alfred Morris 241.00
  6. Ray Rice 222.10
  7. C.J. Spiller 212.30
  8. Jamaal Charles 204.50
  9. Trent Richardson 203.70
  10. Frank Gore 202.80

In looking at these numbers, I ask myself, which backs have already peaked? Which backs have coaches that are limiting their touches? I would knock Lynch, Rice, and Gore all down based on those questions. 

You also want to look at which backs are in a situation where their upside may be capped. Are they in a balanced offense? Are they the only options on their team? Will the box be stacked eight strong every time they line up? Based on those assumptions, I would knock Spiller and Richardson slightly down. 

I'm going to ignore injury questions, because by virtue of just being a running back you are more likely to get injured. 


  1. Calvin Johnson 220.40
  2. Brandon Marshall 216.60
  3. Dez Bryant 207.70
  4. A.J. Green 202.80
These receivers are in ideal situations. They are clear #1's on their respective teams, and in pass happy offenses. With the exception of the Bears, they have near non existent running games. They have all been have been with their quarterbacks for at least two years. A.J.  and Dez are 24, Calvin is 27, Brandon is 29. Each are coming into their prime or are right in the midst of it. Calvin put up 260+ fantasy points two seasons ago.

I would argue that is is safer to pick one of these four receivers this year than all but the top six  or seven running backs in the above list. Not only because it is not out of the realm of possibilities that they produce 220+ points by year end, but because by virtue of being receivers they are less likely to get seriously injured. 

With that said here are my current rankings for the 2013 season:

  1. Adrian Peterson
  2. Doug Martin
  3. Jamaal Charles (My biggest question mark. Is Smith a system baby or can he lead a team?)
  4. Alfred Morris
  5. Calvin Johnson
  6. Arian Foster (Has tons of touches over career, Houston will limit his opportunity)
  7. C.J. Spiller
  8. Trent Richardson
  9. A.J. Green
  10. Brandon Marshall
  11. Ray Rice (See Arian Foster)
  12. Julio Jones (Post hype sleeper - I think he is ready to break 200+ this year)

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