Learning Daily Baseball Day #3

I was 13 points from cashing yesterday. I didn't have time to really do my research and Tigers bats have been hot so I took a flyer on stacking them today. Took into account the decent weather, seems like I stacked the wrong team unfortunately. Took a chance on Detwiler playing an anemic Philly offense, and did well until he let up three runs and four hits in the 6th.

I feel like I'm getting close to putting it all together. Odds seem much better in playing the Moon Shot games, I'm going to stick with those for now.

Learning DFS Day #2

I'm trying to focus on getting good pitching, and this was a win for me yesterday. My strategy in picking hitters was going through baseball press, and seeing which hitters were hot (batting around .300 or better) with favorable match ups. I got stuck with Soriano because I had one outfielder slot open and 3k left. I know I could have found some better value with pitching but I want to continue this strategy for a week or so to see how it pans out for me.

I also noticed that the scoring output for the Daily Dollar was MUCH higher than the $2 Moon Shot. I think because you can have multiple entries in the Moon Shot, people get baited into putting as many shitty lineups in as they can. I was 154/527 with a score of 77.35 (top 100 cash out) two days ago, and 139/170 with a score of 73.20 (top 40 cash out) yesterday. I think today I'll play both with the same lineup and compare.

Also, when you set your lineups check the weather! I thought I wasn't going to have a run yesterday because of rain delays for both the Cardinals and Braves games. Luckily they both finished but next time I'll be a little more aware of that. I probably shouldn't have gone with hitters in heavy, wet conditions either. 

The Year of the Receiver

There has not been more than four receivers to break the 200+ point barrier in one year since 2009 (based on non ppr standard scoring), per NFL.com. Here are last year's receivers and running backs who scored above that 200 mark:

Running Backs: Adrian Peterson 307.40 Doug Martin 262.60 Arian Foster 262.10 Marshawn Lynch 246.60 Alfred Morris 241.00 Ray Rice 222.10 C.J. Spiller 212.30 Jamaal Charles 204.50 Trent Richardson 203.70 Frank Gore 202.80 In looking at these numbers, I ask myself, which backs have already peaked? Which backs have coaches that are limiting their touches? I would knock Lynch, Rice, and Gore all down based on those questions.  You also want to look at which backs are in a situation where their upside may be capped. Are they in a balanced offense? Are they the only options on their team? Will the box be stacked eight strong every time they line up? Based on those assumptions, I would knock Spiller and Richardson slightly down.  I'm going to ignore injury questions, because by virtue of just being a running back you are more likely to get injured.  Receivers: Calvin Johnson 220.40 Brandon Marshall 216.60 Dez Bryant 207.70 A.J. Green 202.80 These receivers are in ideal situations. They are clear #1's on their respective teams, and in pass happy offenses. With the exception of the Bears, they have near non existent running games. They have all been have been with their quarterbacks for at least two years. A.J.  and Dez are 24, Calvin is 27, Brandon is 29. Each are coming into their prime or are right in the midst of it. Calvin put up 260+ fantasy points two seasons ago. I would argue that is is safer to pick one of these four receivers this year than all but the top six  or seven running backs in the above list. Not only because it is not out of the realm of possibilities that they produce 220+ points by year end, but because by virtue of being receivers they are less likely to get seriously injured.  With that said here are my current rankings for the 2013 season: Adrian Peterson Doug Martin Jamaal Charles (My biggest question mark. Is Smith a system baby or can he lead a team?) Alfred Morris Calvin Johnson Arian Foster (Has tons of touches over career, Houston will limit his opportunity) C.J. Spiller Trent Richardson A.J. Green Brandon Marshall Ray Rice (See Arian Foster) Julio Jones (Post hype sleeper - I think he is ready to break 200+ this year)

Learning Daily Fantasy Baseball

I discovered DraftKings about a month and a half before the NBA regular season ended. I instantly fell in love with the concept of daily fantasy sports, particularly for basketball and football. I don't know baseball very well. I enjoy watching the Rays but I've never really gotten into knowing the nuts and bolts of how baseball translates into fantasy. So I'm going to chronicle my struggles and shitty picks for $1 and $2 games for the rest of this season on DraftKings.

I did daily baseball for about the first month, and burnt myself out. Lost some money and never felt like depositing any more funds into my account. This is round two for me, and I have a little bit of a clearer idea in who to pick. 

The most useful site I use is http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php. If you wait about an hour before the first pitch, most lineups will be posted. Honestly, the most difficult thing about daily fantasy baseball is making sure all your players are actually playing that day! I made this mistake today as you'll see in a moment.  )-.-(

I've learned that if you don't have two pitchers that can put up at least 15 points, your chances of cashing out are much lower. I went with two inexpensive pitchers today, and hit gold with Kluber. I watched Hernandez get his face melted inning after inning. I'm still learning how to interpret match ups and figure out which pitchers will excel in which situations. I stacked the Rangers because they were at him in Arlington and the matchup seemed favorable. If I had squeezed 10 more points out of any of my hitters or pitchers I would have cashed. 

I also watched Adrian Beltre pop fly out with two outs and the bases loaded. So close, yet so far! Grand slam would have put me in the top 50 for sure.

Fantasy Football Calculator Mock Analysis #1

In thinking of ways to teach people how to approach drafts, I came up with this idea. Once a week I will be doing a mock draft on http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com  and analyzing my thoughts and strategy for every pick. I have made my personal strategy this year pretty clear in previous posts. To keep things interesting I will change up my strategy each week to show how you can take advantage of your draft in every situation.

Instead of doing mocks blindly and picking players you like, you should have a rough idea of who you are leaning towards and want to pick. This first draft I went with my favorite strategy. I chose the 8th spot and decided I would go WR/WR with my first two picks if the players I was targeting were available. You will see that right from the beginning my plan gets thrown off track and I had to adjust to keep the integrity of my team.

Without further ado, here were the results of my first draft:

1.8 - Agh! My plan gets foiled right from the start, as Calvin Johnson was my #1 target and gets picked up by The Don. Still feeling comfortable with my options, I chose A.J. Green as my first pick. This post explains my thoughts on the top four receivers. I felt confident that either Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones would still be available on the wrap around.

2.17 - Easy choice for me. I went with Brandon Marshall  because I am experimenting with a strategy that I will explain a few picks down the road. With the development of Alshon Jeffery and the addition of Martellus Bennet, Marshall has the opportunity to explode. Jay Cutler has options now. It may result in less opportunities for raw looks, but they will be much more efficient with the passes thrown his way. They will be able to utilize him in formations the Bears were unable to last year. Also, when shit does hit the fan, Cutler will always look to his other half.

3.32 - I was optimistic that Darren McFadden would drop to me, but alas he was taken by jm. At this point I start looking at which backs will have the highest usage. I want to load up on starting backs who will get the most touches and be on the field for the most plays. I'm looking at three players: David Wilson, Montee Ball, and Ryan Mathews. I took a chance and skipped on Mathews hoping he might drop to me on the wrap around. I don't have much information on Ball so I went with a high upside pick in Wilson. Huge upside. Though it is confirmed that Andre Brown will be the goal-line back I still felt pretty comfortable with Wilson and his ability to single handedly win me weeks.

4.41 - Argh! Foiled again! With Mathews taken I had to think quickly on who to pick. It was between Eddie Lacy and Christopher Ivory. If two backs have the same usage and upside, always take the one on the better team. The Packers have a very balanced run/pass attack and I felt fairly comfortable with the rook on Rodgers side of the ball.

5.56 - My favorite part of the draft. This is where your own value system for players comes the most handy. I did not like any of the running backs available at this point and there were still extremely high usage receivers on the board. Looking at Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace. All these receivers are high upside flex/WR3. I went with Bowe mainly due to health and being the clear cut #1 on the Chiefs.

6.65 - I was ecstatic when I saw Antonio Brown still on the board. Year after year the Steelers are always undervalued and I don't know why. Todd Haley is a pass happy offensive mind, and their defense isn't getting any better. I went with him over Nicks because of health reasons asa well. Having a fourth potential #1 receiver gives me the flexibility later in the year to trade for a real running back if mine don't pan out. To me, Brown was well above any of the available running backs on the board. 

7.80 - This is where I start stacking on potential high upside/high usage backs or protecting my earlier picks. I am good on receivers for the rest of the draft, so I opted to protect my David Wilson investment by taking Andre Brown. 

8.89 - I am very excited by Chip Kelly and the offense he is going to instill. Bryce Brown has the opportunity for double digit touches on a regular basis. If McCoy gets injured I suddenly have a #1 back on my roster as well.

9.104 - I liked Isaiah Pead but I'd rather wait and see how the pre-season shakes out before I make any decisions on St. Louis running backs. So I went with Ryan Mathews cuff, Danny Woodhead (if you draft Mathews, he should be on your list of number one cuffs to target. I'm a big believer in protecting your investments).

10.113 I am extremely high on Jermichael Finley this year. Has the tools but has never put it together mentally. Contract year. He's going to work his ass off to get overpaid by Miami next year.

11.128 - Finally took a quarterback! I alluded to this earlier, but by grabbing A.J. Green and Marshall, I wanted to see if I would have any issues snagging both Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler. Huge fan of players entering their 3rd/4th years and I believe that he has not reached his ceiling yet. Last year he was more than serviceable. I am a fan of doubling down on quarterbacks and their receivers when they are a clear cut #1 with extremely heavy usage. Both Marshall and Green fit the bill. 

12.137 - Went with Cutler. I felt extremely comfortable with the rest of my team. Don't always need a backup quarterback but by having Marshall I can always play the matchup with Cutler and Dalton. New offensive philosophy in Chicago as well. Feeling good about him not getting his brains splattered on the field this year.

13.152 - I'm a fan of Chicago's offense for fantasy, and even though I'm extremely high on Finley he is still a risk. Martellus Bennett has proven he can play, is 26 years old, and has some serious potential. He can block as well and will be getting very high usage on the Bears.

14.161 - I'm a fan of streaming defenses. I don't believe in drafting any before the 14th round of any draft. Ever. Went with Arizona, love their TD potential with their backfield. 

15.176 - With with Dan Bailey on Dallas. Plays in a dome and is on the same team as Tony Romo.

Analysis:

I am extremely happy with my final team. Didn't feel the need to reach for any players, nor did I end up with any serious liabilities. Felt like I got good value with most of my picks. I'm a big believer in having a balanced team and having trade chips at every position. I can guarantee this won't happen in real life though!

There are Two Types of Fantasy Sports Managers

There are two categories that fantasy sports managers fall into when drafting their team. They're either conservative or take risks. I believe to have the best chance of contending year in and year out for fantasy championships calculated risks need to be taken. This includes drafting unproven rookies, "reaching" for a player that otherwise may have dropped to you the next round, drafting players with an injury history, and so on.

If you take a player that is otherwise not considered a producer at a later stage in the draft (past the 2nd round), you potentially could have found a diamond in the rough and have a team that is more likely to win. Doug Martin and Steph Curry are perfect examples. One an unproven rookie, the other an injury risk. Both being drafted in the second or third round of drafts and producing at top 3 levels in their respective positions. If you had either on your team last year, you probably fared well in your league, if not won outright.

If you want to take flyers on players you need to make sure you have a panoramic view of the situation surrounding the athlete and ask yourself hard questions.

A few good questions to ask yourself are (this applies to football and basketball):

1. What is the offensive philosophy of the team? Do they like to spread the ball around or do they have that dude? 
2. Injuries. What kind of injuries has they player you are targeting had? Are they recurring (bad sign)? Or have they been freak accidents on different areas of the body?
3. Is the athlete in a contract year (2013 hint: this guy)? One of my favorites. Underperforming players in contract years LOVE to perform for one year and ride into the sunset with their paycheck.
4. Your position in the draft. If you are on the edges of the draft (1-4 or 9-12), do you reach for a player that likely won't make it back to you? Or if you are in the middle do you take a risk and hope that player makes it back around to you?
5. Video. Watch highlights of a player. Is this player an under utilized hustle guy who will produce if given the chance? How athletically gifted is he? 
6. Does the player have a handcuff I can protect my investment with? Will I be able to trade him later down the road?

These are just a couple things you can take into consideration. There are many more factors that go into making decisions like where the athlete plays, keeping tabs with the local beat, etc. In the end, go with your gut and ignore all the noise. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on someone people are overlooking. Ask yourself the question "Who will I have been most pissed off about that I didn't draft?".

Changing How You Think About Drafts

Sleepers. Break out candidates. Busts. If you want to be successful year in and year out with your fantasy drafts you need to change the framework of how you think about them. Thinking about particular players and pigeonholing them in these roles will hamstring you throughout your drafts. You can like or dislike players all you want, but if you allow your feelings to cloud your thoughts on drafting a player you've already lost a step. It is about the value versus upside in relation to where the player is picked.

I'll use a personal example. Two years ago, I had Tony Romo. He did alright for me all year and I made it to the championship round of my league. He broke his hand that week and had a grand total 0.00 fantasy points. I lost by less than 4 (LeSean McCoy had about six points for me as well, talk about shitty luck). I don't like Romo. I'm not a fan of the Cowboys, and I don't enjoy watching him play. The next year I told myself I was not going to draft him under any circumstances. I get to my draft, and I'm sitting there in the 7th round with no quarterback and Romo staring me in the eyes. At that point, in the 7th round, with no quarterback, I decided to swallow my pride and draft Romo because the value for him that late in my draft was too good to pass up. I ended up having a battle in the semi finals of the playoffs and just losing. Fantasy football playoffs are a shit show once you make them anyway. But seriously. Fuck Tony Romo (for fantasy). I am NOT drafting him this year.

If you drafted Ryan Mathews last year in the first or second round, he was a bust. If you grabbed him in the fourth or fifth round(admittedly you probably didn't), he will have performed up to par to his draft position. This year, I believe he should be a late first or second round pick, and he's being drafted as late as the 5th! Even if you've been burnt by Mathews in the past, why would you pass up on this ridiculous deal. This is like companies buying thousands of dollars of debt for pennies on the dollar for just the chance of the person in debt to pay them back. If you want to argue, "Oh he's injury prone," I would disagree. Rob Gronkowski is injury prone. He's had the same injury and multiple surgeries in the same places. Mathews hasn't hurt the same part of his body once. It's about the value of risk versus reward, and right now burning a fourth or fifth round pick on Ryan Mathews is worth the potential reward.

Don't get stuck with telling yourself, "I have to get a running back with my first pick," or, "If I don't have a quarterback by the 6th round I'm screwed,". No. If you are drafting players for value and not position, you will have the advantage. You can trade for your needs. Be fluid in your drafts. Every draft is different, and pick accordingly.